Monday, April 24, 2017

Parks and Resorts- Competition spurs creativity



The rivalry between Disney and Universal is probably the best its ever been, which is great news for customers (though it will likely take its toll on the wallet). This was not always the case; for much of the last 30 years, the rivalry was nearly non-existent. Universal would try something, if it was a success, Disney might copy it, etc. However, they really operated in different genres; Disney as a family friendly immersive THEME park while Universal was a movie studio with rides tailored to older patrons. This all changed once Comcast bought out Universal and decided to compete in a new type of attraction; the fully immersive themed land. Wizarding World of Harry Potter was a game changer for the industry, becoming the new standard of top notch attractions, stores, and restaurants in a FULLY IMMERSIVE environment. This also drove the cost up considerably for new developments.

Universal did not stop there. Universal made a master plan where they are coming out with a Major attraction every year for the foreseeable future. This is ambitious. How did Disney respond? They tried to match it with Pandora: the world of Avatar. Not quite Harry Potter, but it does create a vivid environment.

More importantly though we need to understand what this represents...it's an arms race. Disney is going to struggle to keep up, but Disney's pace is must slower (5-7 year avg by my calculations). Will this give Universal a distinct advantage?

Additionally, this arms race of themed environments has created a new type of expansion. I call it the Billion Dollar land. It is these improvements which cost anywhere between $800M-$1.2B, (a lot of money), but which actually don't offer much. Examples include

DISNEY

Fantasyland expansion- Two terrible attractions, repurposed Dumbo, One nice restaurant, one quick service restaurant

Cars land- Two attractions, One large one, counter service food

Pandora- Two attractions, one restaurant

Star Wars land- Two attractions, likely some restaurant

Toy Story land- Likely two attractions

UNIVERSAL

Harry Potter- Several attractions across two parks, two restaurants

Simpsons- two attractions, one major, restaurant

Nintendo land- ???


The cost of the themed environment is so high that the actual land provides little to do. The companies need to plan for this. A new land should be all encompassing and be able to pass a LOT of time, i.e. 5-7 attractions (good ones too, not repurposed ones), 1-2 restaurants, shops, etc. Take star wars land; there should be a hoth planet with an attraction, a death star, and several more. The land should take up considerable size, not only a few acres. This SHOULD cost a lot of money to do it well, so the companies should allocate that a new redevelopment should get at least $1.5B if they are trying to go all in. Disney cannot compete with Universal if they try to do this on the cheap; i.e California adventure. If it is too much money then they should not try to engage.

Many will read this and say something like "that's easy for you to say, etc." I agree, spending $2B is a tough call, but that's the business their in.

For Disney, Star Wars and Marvel should get their own theme park (or at least a substantial part of a park) if done right. These are game changer IP's.

For Universal, Harry Potter is making them a FORTUNE. Why is the Lost continent still there? Get rid of it and expand Harry Potter. Get rid of MIB or other dated attractions in USF. For Nintendo, the options are plentiful and could really do some damage.

Unless a company chooses to bow out, the arms race will continue and we should be happy about it! Thoughts?

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